How to bet Dallas-Oakland
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday night's tilt between the Dallas Cowboys and Oakland Raiders. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday afternoon.
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Oakland Raiders
Total: 46
PickCenter: 75 percent on Dallas
Phil Steele
The Raiders had been making a charge toward the playoffs heading into last weekend. They had looked like one of the AFC's best teams prior to Derek Carr's injury and had won three of their past six games, but it all ended in Arrowhead as they were outgained 408-268 in the 11-point defeat. They are back at home and have always had a dislike of the Cowboys, so they will come to play. The Raiders have won three straight at home, outgaining their foes by 115 yards per game. This is the Cowboys' last game without Ezekiel Elliott and getting linebacker Sean Lee back on defense was key to their victory a week ago against the Giants. Dallas was tied with New York in the fourth quarter, but won by 20. Dallas is still minus-77 yards per game the past four weeks, which has me passing here as both sides are still in playoff contention.
ATS pick: Pass
Erin Rynning
Not sure what the Cowboys have done of late to garner the lofty road favorite status in this contest. Yes they clobbered the Giants last week, a team that's quit on the season and my lowest rated team in the NFL. Another OK win against the Redskins the week prior, although they were outgained by .7 yards per play and the Redskins wheeled back with a pathetic effort against the Chargers. Finally, the three games before their modest two-game winning streak, the Cowboys were thoroughly dominated in three games, being outscored 92-22. No question, the Raiders have a plethora of questions surrounding their fallen state. The Raiders still have some back class and a quarterback Derek Carr is fully capable of putting points up against this Dallas secondary.
ATS pick: Raiders
Warren Sharp
The Raiders posted a 1-5 record against top-half defenses and a 5-2 record against bottom-half defenses this year, but the Cowboys' defense ranks 26th, indicating that the Raiders have a chance. And while they certainly have a chance, the Cowboys are a vastly different defense with Sean Lee. The biggest improvement with Lee in the past two weeks has been the Cowboys' run defense, which is also schedule-related with the Cowboys having faced the bottom-five run offenses of the Redskins and Giants the past two weeks. The Raiders' run offense ranks ninth overall, and should pose a tougher test at home in prime time. But the big concern is for the Raiders' defense, which recently defeated bottom-10 offenses of the Giants, Broncos and Dolphins, but was beaten soundly by the top-10 offenses of the Patriots and Chiefs. The Cowboys' ninth-ranked offense should be imposing enough to pull this one out.
ATS pick: Lean Cowboys
Mike Clay
Prediction: Dallas 24, Oakland 22
Pick: Oakland +3
John Parolin's prop bets
70.5 rushing yards by Alfred Morris (O/U -110)
Since Ezekiel Elliott's suspension began in Week 10, Alfred Morris has had an 83-36 advantage in rushes over Rod Smith while Darren McFadden retired. Morris has established himself as the lead back in Zeke's absence, with 369 rushing yards in the past five weeks, fourth most in the league. The increased workload hasn't hurt Morris' rates much, as he's still averaging a stellar 4.45 yards per rush in that span. Averaging Morris' production with Oakland's 4.06 yards per rush leaves Morris needing 17 rushes on Sunday night to hit the over. He's had at least 17 in three of his past four games, including two games where Dak Prescott played poor enough to allow defenses to sell out against the run.
There are other factors helping Morris as well. His 2.41 yards after contact per rush average is sixth best among 43 qualified rushers. Oakland ranks 20th in the league with a 2.40 yards before contact average, suggesting that Morris could see more room to run before defenders reach him than he would against an average defense. Once they get there, Morris could prove tough to bring down. Considering his share of the Cowboys' workload, he can get enough tough yards to reach 71.
The play: Over
265.5 passing yards by Derek Carr (O/U -110)
Marshawn Lynch has enjoyed a miniature renaissance since Week 9, posting over 55 rushing yards in each game and leaving Oakland's offensive profile in a state of flux. Derek Carr averaged 280 yards per game in wins against the Dolphins, Broncos and Giants in that span, while he was held to 224 yards per game in losses to New England and Kansas City. Carr had his full complement of receivers against the Patriots, but Amari Cooper was playing through an ankle injury against the Chiefs that he reaggravated in the game. Even if Cooper plays again, he's not going to be 100 percent by Sunday -- limiting one of Carr's most explosive weapons.
A bigger problem might actually be any success Oakland has early. Since Zeke's suspension began in Week 10, Cowboys opponents have rushed on the sixth-highest rate in the league (43 percent of plays), generally a byproduct of protecting leads. Over the past three weeks, the Raiders have rushed on 41 percent of their plays. Using Carr's 6.5 yards per attempt over the past two weeks with Cooper out or ineffective, Oakland would need to throw 41 passes to hit the over. If Oakland's rushing on 42 percent of plays (and passing on 58 percent), the Raiders would need to run 71 snaps against the Cowboys to hit the over. They've done that only twice all season.
The play: Under
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday night's tilt between the Dallas Cowboys and Oakland Raiders. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday afternoon.
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Oakland Raiders
Total: 46
PickCenter: 75 percent on Dallas
Phil Steele
The Raiders had been making a charge toward the playoffs heading into last weekend. They had looked like one of the AFC's best teams prior to Derek Carr's injury and had won three of their past six games, but it all ended in Arrowhead as they were outgained 408-268 in the 11-point defeat. They are back at home and have always had a dislike of the Cowboys, so they will come to play. The Raiders have won three straight at home, outgaining their foes by 115 yards per game. This is the Cowboys' last game without Ezekiel Elliott and getting linebacker Sean Lee back on defense was key to their victory a week ago against the Giants. Dallas was tied with New York in the fourth quarter, but won by 20. Dallas is still minus-77 yards per game the past four weeks, which has me passing here as both sides are still in playoff contention.
ATS pick: Pass
Erin Rynning
Not sure what the Cowboys have done of late to garner the lofty road favorite status in this contest. Yes they clobbered the Giants last week, a team that's quit on the season and my lowest rated team in the NFL. Another OK win against the Redskins the week prior, although they were outgained by .7 yards per play and the Redskins wheeled back with a pathetic effort against the Chargers. Finally, the three games before their modest two-game winning streak, the Cowboys were thoroughly dominated in three games, being outscored 92-22. No question, the Raiders have a plethora of questions surrounding their fallen state. The Raiders still have some back class and a quarterback Derek Carr is fully capable of putting points up against this Dallas secondary.
ATS pick: Raiders
Warren Sharp
The Raiders posted a 1-5 record against top-half defenses and a 5-2 record against bottom-half defenses this year, but the Cowboys' defense ranks 26th, indicating that the Raiders have a chance. And while they certainly have a chance, the Cowboys are a vastly different defense with Sean Lee. The biggest improvement with Lee in the past two weeks has been the Cowboys' run defense, which is also schedule-related with the Cowboys having faced the bottom-five run offenses of the Redskins and Giants the past two weeks. The Raiders' run offense ranks ninth overall, and should pose a tougher test at home in prime time. But the big concern is for the Raiders' defense, which recently defeated bottom-10 offenses of the Giants, Broncos and Dolphins, but was beaten soundly by the top-10 offenses of the Patriots and Chiefs. The Cowboys' ninth-ranked offense should be imposing enough to pull this one out.
ATS pick: Lean Cowboys
Mike Clay
Prediction: Dallas 24, Oakland 22
Pick: Oakland +3
John Parolin's prop bets
70.5 rushing yards by Alfred Morris (O/U -110)
Since Ezekiel Elliott's suspension began in Week 10, Alfred Morris has had an 83-36 advantage in rushes over Rod Smith while Darren McFadden retired. Morris has established himself as the lead back in Zeke's absence, with 369 rushing yards in the past five weeks, fourth most in the league. The increased workload hasn't hurt Morris' rates much, as he's still averaging a stellar 4.45 yards per rush in that span. Averaging Morris' production with Oakland's 4.06 yards per rush leaves Morris needing 17 rushes on Sunday night to hit the over. He's had at least 17 in three of his past four games, including two games where Dak Prescott played poor enough to allow defenses to sell out against the run.
There are other factors helping Morris as well. His 2.41 yards after contact per rush average is sixth best among 43 qualified rushers. Oakland ranks 20th in the league with a 2.40 yards before contact average, suggesting that Morris could see more room to run before defenders reach him than he would against an average defense. Once they get there, Morris could prove tough to bring down. Considering his share of the Cowboys' workload, he can get enough tough yards to reach 71.
The play: Over
265.5 passing yards by Derek Carr (O/U -110)
Marshawn Lynch has enjoyed a miniature renaissance since Week 9, posting over 55 rushing yards in each game and leaving Oakland's offensive profile in a state of flux. Derek Carr averaged 280 yards per game in wins against the Dolphins, Broncos and Giants in that span, while he was held to 224 yards per game in losses to New England and Kansas City. Carr had his full complement of receivers against the Patriots, but Amari Cooper was playing through an ankle injury against the Chiefs that he reaggravated in the game. Even if Cooper plays again, he's not going to be 100 percent by Sunday -- limiting one of Carr's most explosive weapons.
A bigger problem might actually be any success Oakland has early. Since Zeke's suspension began in Week 10, Cowboys opponents have rushed on the sixth-highest rate in the league (43 percent of plays), generally a byproduct of protecting leads. Over the past three weeks, the Raiders have rushed on 41 percent of their plays. Using Carr's 6.5 yards per attempt over the past two weeks with Cooper out or ineffective, Oakland would need to throw 41 passes to hit the over. If Oakland's rushing on 42 percent of plays (and passing on 58 percent), the Raiders would need to run 71 snaps against the Cowboys to hit the over. They've done that only twice all season.
The play: Under
